Autor(s):

Stefan Parvanov, Academy of the Ministry of the Interior, Bulgaria, sip_81@abv.bg

https://doi.org/10.55630/STEM.2025.0721

Abstract:

    This article focuses on methods for the analysis and forecasting of crisis events that significantly affect societal resilience and critical infrastructure. It presents approaches for identifying early indicators of emerging crises, as well as models for assessing the dynamics of their development. Particular attention is given to quantitative methods, including statistical and mathematical models, alongside qualitative techniques based on expert assessments and scenario planning. International best practices in forecasting natural, technological, and social crises are analyzed. The possibilities of integrating modern information technologies and artificial intelligence into prediction processes are also discussed. The proposed methods support informed decision-making and enhance the effectiveness of prevention and response in emergency situations.

Keywords:

Analysis; Forecasting; Crisis Events; Resilience; Scenario Planning; Risk Management; Critical Infrastructure;

Received:

11-11-2025

Accepted:

18-12-2025

Published:

29-12-2025

Cite (APA style):

Parvanov, S. (2025). Methods for the Analysis and Forecasting of Crisis Events, Science Series "Innovative STEM Education", volume 07, ISSN: 2683-1333, Institute of Mathematics and Informatics – Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, pp. 235-242, DOI: https://doi.org/10.55630/STEM.2025.0721

PDF file address:

http://www.math.bas.bg/vt/stemedu/books/07/STEM.2025.0721.pdf