Abstracts

[in alphabetical order of the family name of the presenting author]

Kiril Alexiev, Iva Nikolova, Methods for Data and Information Fusion

Correct decision making in the security sector mainly depends on information, received from multiple sources. Often, the information is insufficient, unreliable and contradictive. Multisensor data fusion systems seek to combine information from multiple sources and sensors in order to achieve inferences that cannot be achieved with a single sensor or source or in some sense better than single source information. This paper is an attempt to be done an analysis of the fusion theory literature in the last years. The main objective is to provide knowledge of the latest state-of-the art techniques for data and information fusion and to reveal the topics, the scientific society efforts are nowadays concentrated. But, the outcome of this analysis would be insufficient and scanty if it concerns only the past years. That is why the authors turn on a risky deal – to forecast the future research in this field. The authors outlined the most important and interesting topics of research in the next few years. The authors hope that the paper could inspire a discussion about the future of data and information fusion systems and their effective application.

Nikolaos Atreas, Costas Karanikas, A New Matching Algorithm Based on Prime Numbers

Let S be the set of all strings of length N written in an alphabet of p-letters. We define a transform on S based on prime numbers, by assigning each element of S to a unique positive rational number. We prove that the reconstruction process is given by the unique solution of a system of N linear Diophantine equations a_ix + b_iy = c_i where c_i is defined recursively. To avoid the quadratic time complexity for the execution of the algorithm we use a hash function approximating the transform.

Petro Bekh, Volodymyr Shevchenko, Information Security in IT Society: Humanitarian Aspects

Consequences of data security violation may be of different kind: political – the resignation of the cabinet; military – the change of the cryptography technique; business – financial damages; personal – loss of job or accommodation. All these losses can be evaluated in material form, but sometimes the consequences may be irreversible, e.g. man’s death or destruction of heritage. The report discusses two humanitarian aspects of information security: software data protection and safety of data storage. In the IT society more and more information is stored in a digital way: from the list of super agents to financial transactions, from the blood and urine analyses to the holographic copies of masterpieces.
Modern mathematical/software methods of data protection (inscription) mainly satisfy the standard needs, nevertheless the stable growth of computers productivity leads to the development of new algorithms and software. On the other hand, for terrorists it is often enough to raze digitally of physically data storages, so it raises the problem of compression algorithms, firewall and antivirus programs, dubbing methods and read-only storages. Data are not only commercial or political texts or numerical tables; they are also manuscripts and sculptures, soniferous sources (songs, symphonies, etc.) and paintings. Menace to these information/data is not only of crime origin, but it also may be due to natural disasters, like fires, floods or earthquakes. Digitizing humanitarian data and safety storage of digital copies is the main road to secure the cultural data.

Dimitrij S. Birjukov, Reliability Optimization of Multi-state Systems with Heterogeneous Multi-state Elements

Many engineering systems can be modeled by a network of interconnecting components, whose cooperation allows to realize a specified task. A successful employment of these systems in a critical real world environment requires an evaluation and optimization of their reliability, i.e. their ability to perform the desired operation despite the effects of malfunctioning and damages. It is recognized that there are systems whose behavior can be modeled by a function with different levels, depending on the operating conditions of the constitutive multi-state elements. Systems characterized by different levels of performance are referred to as Multi-State Systems (MSS).This paper presents model for reliability design of complex-structured MSS with heterogeneous multi-state elements (MSSHE). Approach to evaluate MSSHE reliability and Hybrid Genetic Algorithm to solve Redundancy Optimization Problem (ROP) for MSSHE are proposed.

Keywords: Reliability Design, Discrete Optimization, Redundancy Allocation Problem, Genetic Algorithms

Smile Markovski, Danilo Gligoroski, Vesna Dimitrova, Aleksandra Mileva, The Family of Block Ciphers "SD-(n,k)"

The authors present a new family of block ciphers named as "SD-(n,k)" block ciphers. This family is defined by using quasigroup operations and quasigroup string transformations. Design of "SD-(n,k)" is based on quasigroup string transformation properties and it allows choosing different level of security and different kind of performances. Constructions of encryption and decryption functions used in "SD-(n,k)" are described.

Rafail Gabasov, Constructive Methods of Optimal Control Under Uncertainty

An approach to the optimal synthesis problem based on up-to-date optimization methods [R.Gabasov, F.M. Kirillova et al. Constructive Methods of Optimization. 1998] and the advances of computer technology is suggested. The developed technique are based on a new parameterization of optimal controls and fast algorithms of correcting optimal open-loop solutions in real-time. The topics under discussion are: classical optimal feedback and its realization, optimal guaranteeing feedbacks, optimal control under imperfect information, optimal decentralized control, parallelizing of computations during optimal control of large systems, optimal on-line control with delays, optimal control of time-delay systems, optimal control of PDEs, nonlinear optimal control problems. The algorithms suggested are illustrated by examples.

Krassimir Georgiev, Model Studies of Some Atmosphere Aerosols and Comparisons with Measurements

The aerosols in the atmosphere have a big and increasing importance for the assessment of air quality and climate forcing. They play a crutual role for global temperature modifications. The study of aerosols in the surface layer is mainly motivated of their impact on human health and possible ecological effects. Unfortunately, there are not enough measurements of most of the dangerous aerosols available for support of the decision makers. Therefore, the model studies in this field are of big importance for our community. Some model studies of three aerosols (sulfate, ammonium and nitrate) will be reported together with the comparisons with some measurements done. The TM5 model, which is a three dimensional global chemistry transport model, were chosen for our study. It allows two-way nested zooming which leads to possibility to run the model on a relatively fine space grid.

Christina Hakopian, Natural Disasters and Present Day Science: Lessons from the Past and Solutions for the Future

As is well know, the primitive man, who went hunting and collected fruit, and, later on, developed farming and livestock breeding, had the only aim-to obtain subsistence means. He could not and did not have sufficient knowledge, means, equipment, etc., to forecast and, moreover, prevent natural disasters like earthquakes, volcanoes, drought, fire, flood, and others. Today, in the ear of the culmination of science development and modern, advanced equipment, man would be able to forecast disasters; however, he either cannot forecast them timely, in order to avoid material and human casualties, or he manages to forecast, but is unable to prevent them. Thus, even at its present level, science is not 'strong' enough to ensure security. That is why it is necessary that natural disasters be classified, measures of forecasting them and ensuring security be carried out, and a complex approach to the in-depth study and solution of issues retaining in present day science be used.

Anatoly I. Kalinin, J.O.Grudo, "Optimization of Nonlinear Singularly Perturbed Systems with Hypersphere Control Restriction"

The time-optimal problem for a nonlinear singularly perturbed system with multidimensional control is considered. The values of control are bounded in euclidean norm. An algorithm for the construction of asymptotic approximation to the solution of the problem in question is proposed. The algorithm employs solutions to two optimal control problems of smaller dimension than the original problem.
Key words - optimal control; singular perturbations; asymptotic approximation.

Costas Karanikas, Problems for Effective Analysis of Biological Data

We introduce a variety of new discrete (linear or non linear) invertible transforms on symbolic sequences as genes and proteins, mimicking the basic biological functions and operations as: Replication in multiple copies, Dilation, Translation and Splicing of parts. Some of these transforms based on prime number theory or on Stern-Brocot tree and some others on a generalization of Haar Transform and the Riesz-product theory.
Since in biological data sequencing machines are not always letter perfect and one may not have a 100 percent accurate reconstruction. Our main target with these transforms is to encode-decode local information on strings to make fast non-exact string matching and pattern recognition. Thus we deal of the notion of similarity and distances as the Edit Distance i.e. distances measuring the number of the operations delete, insert and substitute required to identify two strings. The effective analysis on biological data requires a revolutionary progress with new tools and ideas. We hope that our research will provide some tools for this purpose.

Emil Kelevedjiev, Computational Approach for Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in Network Systems

Methods of computational graph theory are appropriate for studying and modeling of the critical infrastructure. The proposed theoretical model and an experimental computer interactive implementation is intended for predicting critical behaviors of a large flow network system. A possible application is management of the critical infrastructure in water supplying systems or in an electricity power submission network. A model is based on linear programming technique to find solutions in multi-stage in time and multi-criteria optimization of the involved graph flow problem. Due to the ability of interactive re-computing with different sets of input and control data, an expert using the proposed implementation can perform adequate decision making.

Faina M. Kirillova, Optimal On-line Control and Classical Regulation Problems

The basic problems of classical regulation theory and its extensions are under consideration. A method and the algorithm for solving classical optimal synthesis problem are discussed (Balashevich N., Gabasov R., Kirillova F., 2000). The essence of the approach based on dynamic version of the adaptive method of LP (Gabasov R., 1979) consists in on-line constructing realizations of the optimal feedbacks by the use of a new parameterization of optimal programs and their corrections in real-time mode. The following questions will be considered: basic problems of classical regulation theory, a linear optimal control problem (optimal open-loop solutions), optimal feedbacks to linear control systems, stabilization by bounded controls, examples: an oscillating system, damping oscillations of a string, stabilization of nonlinear inverted pendulums, regulation of a crane, realization of dynamic systems with a prescribed behavior, synthesis of systems with prescribed limit cycles.

Jana Djounova, Kiril Kirov, Nikolay Kirov, Database Structure for Radiation Incidents and for Treatment of Affected People

This article describes an effort to create a national database of radiation incidents in Bulgaria. It is intended for use by National Center for Radiobiology and Radiation Protection . The purpose of the database is to store specific description of the radiation incident and to trace the health effect on people who participated in the incident. We show also data from the recent radiation incident in Sliven stored in our database.

Ognyan Kounchev, About Some New Applications of ApproximationTheory forForecasting in Time Series

We apply some new approaches for the forecasting of the behaviour of time series. It is based on techniques of Approximation and Spline theory. These maybe applied to various types of data.

Valery V. Krakhotko, G. P. Razmyslovich, The Controllability Problem For Differential-Algebraic Dynamical Systems

In the report a dynamical system of the differential-algebraic equations is considered. For this system the various problems of the controllability on the subspace (H-controllability, complete H-controllability) is set. Using the representation of the solution of the system in the closed form the necessary and sufficient conditions for the stated mode of the controllability are obtained. The condition of the controllability are written in terms of the solutions of the determining equations which are constructed using the input system. The received results are generalized for the differential-algebraic systems with delay.

Axel Lehmann, Verification, Validation and Accreditation of Simulation Models and Applications

Under pressure of time- and cost-constraints, the importance of modelling and simulation (M&S) techniques for representation and analysis of dynamic system behaviour is permanently increasing. While the complexity of real systems and processes are permanently increasing, the complexity of models and simulation applications, and the need for guaranteeing their correctness and credibility is increasing accordingly. This talk will summarize at first perspectives for future needs and potentials in M&S development and applications. The basic requirement for analysis of a model´s credibility is to verify the model´s correctness , and to validate its validity with respect to predefined application purpose and validity criteria. This can only be afforded when the different design, development and application phases of M&S are well documented. This talk will present a M&S verification and validation process based on a multi-phase M&S model development and application concept. It demonstrates how this method can be applied in various application scenarios, and how it can be tailored according to credibility criteria, or to application requirements. We will demonstrate, that a component-based M&S approach will support model verification and validation.

Stein Malerud, A Multi-Methodological Framework for Analysing Crisis Management and Low Intensity Conflicts

During recent years the security environment has become more uncertain and complex. The armed forces face a broader spectrum of tasks, with an increased focus on low intensity conflicts. The inherent uncertainty and complexity of these operations are indeed a challenge for long-term planning as well as for direct OR support to military operations. The first problem is to define the problems. Problem structuring methods (PSM) such as Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) are a useful approach for discussing and agreeing on which problems to address. The next challenge is how to include risk and uncertainty in the analysis models and evaluations. Use of scenarios is one common approach to explore uncertainties in the future security environment. Uncertainties and inaccuracy related to model parameters and human decision making may be represented by, for instance, probability distributions and fuzzy sets. Decision making related to complex problems usually includes more then one decision criterion. Various methods for multi-criteria decision analysis offer different approaches to modelling preferences and to rank alternatives. We believe that combining different OR methods – soft and hard – is a fruitful approach in order to deal with complexity and uncertainty. Thus, we have developed a framework of methods that combines elements of SSM, elements of scenario planning, value modelling and a multi-criteria model for evaluation and prioritizing of decision alternatives. This framework is currently applied in a case study addressing the effectiveness of the Norwegian oil-spill preparedness system.

Todor Tagarev, Boyan Mednikarov, Planning of Security Sector Capabilities for Protection of Maritime Sovereignty

Capability-based planning (CBP) is proving its efficiency in the armed forces. This approach has a considerable potential for implementation in managing the development of the security sector. This article takes a look at a particular application in the area of maritime sovereignty. Our approach is based on centralized planning of the capabilities for protection of maritime sovereignty and agency-based development of these capabilities. We use a process that links objectives, ambitions, planning scenarios, tasks, required capabilities, and planning risks. The distribution of capabilities among security sector organizations accounts for their traditions and current roles, but focuses on cost effectiveness. In the final section of the paper we examine major decision support requirements to capability planning for maritime sovereignty.

Smile Markovski, Danilo Gligoroski, Vesna Dimitrova, Aleksandra Mileva, Avalanche Effect in the Family of Block Ciphers "SD-(n,k)"

"SD-(n,k)" in new family of block ciphers, based on the properties of quasigroup string transformations with possibility of choosing different level of security and different kind of performances, by choosing the key length, the plaintext length and the set of letters. Constructing a cipher to exhibit a substantial avalanche effect is one of the primary design goals. If a block cipher does not exhibit the avalanche effect to a significant degree, then it has poor randomization, and thus a cryptanalyst can make predictions about the input, being given only the output. This may be sufficient to partially or completely break the algorithm. In this paper the authors showed that family of block ciphers "SD-(n,k)" exhibit a substantial avalanche effect.

Zlatogor Minchev, Intelligent Scenario Development for Computer Assisted eXercises

Scenario development for Computer Assisted eXercises (CAX) is a very ambitious area especially in Crises Management field. The reason for this is that CAX, generally works in the digital environment and implements real world crises and objects. Additionally, if we consider a terrorist attacks representation, there is an information uncertainty. The paper will show a mathematical tool, based on the application of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets, random numbers and software implementation of a real operative system for CAX scenario development in Borland Delphi environment.

Boris Mnatsakanyan, L. Chilingaryan, K. Aghababyan, On the Calculation of Maximal Outlets of Small Mountainous Rivers

In mountainous countries with complex physical geographical conditions, such as the territory of the Republic of Armenia, the calculation of the maximal outlets of small rivers has a very important practical meaning, since these rivers bring mudflows and cause serious damage to many branches of economy.
The methods used to evaluate the maximal outlets are often not accurate enough.
We have carried out a comparative research of the case study of the Marmarik river with application of a number of methods used in Soviet times and methods used abroad. The research shows that when calculating the maximal outlets of small rivers it is more efficient to use the formulae or the maps, so far as the values calculated with the use of these formulae and maps are close to the maximal outlets values defined by the rivers with long series of measurements.

Klaus Niemeyer, A Contribution to the Theory of Models

The model and its application, simulation, have got an ever increasing weight as instrument in many disciplines since computers became available. At the same time new scientific theoretical approaches have been developed in order to classify and systematize this method. In this paper an approach is discussed, which describes the modelling method on the basis of the theory of science. The hypothetical statements as formulated in the paper perhaps serve as stimulus for further work in this area and could contribute to the more common understanding of the phenomena of modelling in the context of intelligent and rational behaviour. A model theory has been presented by Stachowiak /1973/ as a fundamental contribution to the theory of science, which is seen as the basis and starting-point for the contribution in this paper. Most important attributes of models are:
• purpose
• model-original-relation
• contraction.
The intellectual feedback cycle of models is the principal element of the paper which can serve as an extension to the theory of modelling. The distinction between perception models and anticipation models is introduced as well as the hierarchical or fractal approach to describe systems of model applications in the context of intellectual behaviour. Examples of real life systems are discussed and presented.

Stavri G. Nikolov, T. D. Dixon, J. J. Lewis, C. N. Canagarajah, D. R. Bull, T. Troscianko, J. M. Noyes, How Multi-Modality Image Displays Affect Decision Making

Accurate and efficient information processing and presentation are critical to optimal decision making and the success of military operations. Image fusion is the process of combining information from multiple images of a scene, e.g. captured by different sensors, into a single composite image that is more suitable for visual perception or computer processing. There are several benefits to multi-sensor image fusion including wider spatial and temporal coverage, extended range of operation, decreased uncertainty, improved reliability and increased robustness of system performance. Multi-sensor image fusion technology offers a means of enhancing vision, improving situation awareness and target detection in many military and security applications. Image fusion is primarily intended for man-in-the-loop systems. In this talk we will review how different multi-modality fused image or video displays affect visual information perception, interpretation, and decision making. The human decision process can be aided significantly by reducing the cognitive load and more importantly displaying task-relevant and decision-relevant information. Results from several recent studies undertaken at the University of Bristol will be presented. These include findings about the way different multi-modality displays have an effect on rapid decision making (very short display times), target tracking in visible and IR surveillance videos; and image segmentation.

Michel Rademaker, Technology Trends and Developments - Approaches and Use in Defense Planning

Technology is for modern defence and security organisations an important force multiplier. In their strategic planning they therefore have to take good notice of short and longterm technology developments. To have an assessment of premature technologies is not often made by military staff. A methodology is presented that is currently under development and tested by NATO RTO Task Group-062 to assess the potential disruptiveness of these premature technologies. The methodology supports both technology push and demand pull and has the potential to help technology experts and military planners to assess the disruptiveness of new technological developments for defence and security.

Hermann Render, Constructive Methods in Geometric Modeling

Bezier curves and Bernstein polynomials are fundamental tools in geometric modeling. In this talk we consider Bernstein-type bases in the framework of exponential polynomials. The main result is the construction of a positive Bernstein-type operator which preserves two given exponential polynomials. A sufficient condition for the convergence of the Bernstein-type operators is presented.

Roberto San Jose, J. L. Perez, R. M. Gonzalez, Real-Time Air Quality Operational Forecasting System for Industrial and Urban Areas

In this contribution we show the description, implementation and operation of an Operational Air Quality Forecasting System for industrial plants and for urban and regional areas. The system is called OPANA (OPerational Atmospheric Numerical model for urban and regional Areas) and is the evolution and result of more than 10 years of research on sophisticated state-of-the-art numerical air quality modelling systems and the implementation on state-of-the-art computer platforms; from old Pentium III to actual dual core 64 bits PC platforms. The system is in operation since 2005 on different industrial plants in the south of Madrid area and for urban areas it is in operation on several cities (Madrid, Leicister city (UK), Las Palmas (Canary Islands, Spain), etc.). The system is actually using MM5 mesoscale meteorological model (PSU/NCAR, US) and CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality Modelling System) developed by EPA (US). Additionally a complex emission modeld (EMIMO) developed by UPM (Spain) is also described and needed to provide hourly and high resolution (1 km) pollution data at global level. Results show that these tools can provide reliable and robust information to authorities and industrial managers to secure - in forecasting mode - the quality of the air in surrounding areas.

Hans-Jurgen Schirlitzki, Simulation within the Transformation Process and CAX

Simulation is one of the key tools to support transformation and computer-assisted exercises. The presentation will discuss different categories of tasks in transformation and CAX which can be supported by modelling & simulation, the systems-of-systems approach used, basic problem areas supported, necessary components of integrated simulation systems, examples of simulation systems and simulation system federations in use and finally concepts for using those simulation tools for experimentation and testing.

Velizar Shalamanov, Integration of C2 and M&S Elements in CAX for Crisis Management

CAX are main tool for training and respectively change management ofcomplex systems. Integrated emergency management system is a typical element of complex adaptive system, which needs effective change management internally and at the same time is an effective change management tool for the whole security sector in transition from traditional national security to civil security concept. CAX requires integration of traditional C2 system with M&S tools to provide real test–bed for new concepts and new technologies including the key element – people in the loop. There are three critical elements in CAX architecture – simulation cell, operations cell and analytical cell that need conceptual, information, hardware and software integration in order to support realistic flow of the training process. Current paper presents a model of such integration based on static and dynamic technological diagrams with distributed nodes in these three cells. In normal C2 system all nodes will “sit” in operations and analytical cell with tendency to have as much as possible of them in the analytical cell providing scientific best solution for problems arising during crisis management scenario. In exercise simulation cell has to cover all nodes that is impossible to be covered by operations and analytical cells. So in one end is a system with participants in the exercise only looking at closed simulation run by simulation cell, without any input from operations or analytical cell. Next step is when we have some nodes implemented in analytical or operations cell and at the other end is a full C2 system where there are no elements in simulation cell – all of the nodes are implemented in operations and analytical cell.

Volodymyr N. Shemaiev, Oleksandr F. Velichko, The Methods of Scenario’s Estimation and Managements of Situations in the Sphere of Maintenance of Military Safety of the State

The modern military-political environment is characterized by dynamism and instability. In such terms, development and realization of the weighed policy of all the components of the national security is the one of the basic sphere of the state institutions activities. Military security is the one of the critical components.
The difficulties of an estimation and forecasting in this sphere are caused by the following features:
- interrelation of processes, multi-aspect processes;
- absence of sufficient capacity of the quantitative information on dynamics of processes;
- necessity of the account of the purposes, interests of active subjects of inves-tigated processes.
In this case, usage of traditional methods for formalization and algorithmic development of scenarios of the case management does not bring desirable result owing to complexity of reception of adequate formal models of processes. The of-fered Methods are based on the method of system dynamics, which bases have been developed by J. Forester [1]. Key point of this method is that the system can be presented in the form of structure. All the elements of the structure are intercon-nected that enables researches both behaviour of system as a whole, and its sepa-rate components. For the realization of given methods the mathematical device cognitive mod-elling that allows to solve algorithmically both direct, and return problems of man-agement [2] is used.
Usage of the developed Methods allows to reveal in due time threats in mili-tary sphere and to form scenarios of their neutralization.
Sources:
1. J. Forester. World dynamics. - Ì.: Science, 1978. – 304 p.
2. B.Kosko. Fuzzy thinking. Hyperion, 1993. – 320 p.

Volodymyr Shevchenko, Information Systems’ Security: Saper vs. Electronics

In contemporary society companies and individuals rely on information systems to manage their jobs and personal lives. Modern corporations rely on computerized information systems to process financial accounts and manage human resources; municipal governments rely on information systems to provide basic services to its citizens; and individuals use information systems to study, shop, bank, and invest. Information systems’ security is responsible for the integrity and safety of system resources and activities. Most organizations in developed countries are dependent on the secure operation of their information systems.
New technologies for recording and processing information as well as for information safety have been invented, new capabilities have appeared. The main advantage of electronic systems – “rewrite ability” - is in the same time the largest threat to their security. Correctly done electronic change of A to B in information system can’t be detected any way. On the other hand in paper document it can be detected easily. So to guarantee the safety or possibility to find a criminals information systems should use “incombustible paper” (“once write memory”) which via hardware or software methods support the registration of all information changes.
In the same time disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and fires destroy papers as fast as floppy, CD or memory chips. This problem has no electronic or mathematics solution. That’s why we use for safety of our paper and electronic media the same measures: copying, fireproof boxes, etc. But the simplicity of copying electronic information generates a new circle of security problems.

Tsvetomir Tsachev, A Dynamic Evacuation Model

The population of several settlements has to be evacuated to safe locations because it is threatened by an approaching hazardous phenomenon (e.g. poisonous or radioactive cloud, flood, storm, etc.). A precise forecast for the dynamics (the movement) of the phenomenon is assumed to exist until all the roads leading out of the settlements, that are to be evacuated, are cut off. The problem is to determine the transport flows dispatched out of these settlements, at each of the (discrete) time moments until they are hit by the hazardous phenomenon.
A continuous model of the evacuation in the form of an optimal control problem will also be discussed.

Hassan Ugail, E. Elyan, Efficient 3D Data Representation for Biometric Applications

An important issue in many of today's biometric applications is the development of efficient and accurate techniques for representing related 3D data. Such data often is available through the process of digitization of complex geometric objects which are of importance to biometric applications. For example, in the area of 3D face recognition a digital point cloud of data corresponding to a given face is usually provided by a 3D digital scanner. For efficient data storage and for identification/authentication in a timely fashion such data requires to be represented using a few parameters or variables which are meaningful.
Here we show how mathematical techniques based on Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) can be utilised to represent complex 3D data where the data can be parameterised in an efficient way. For example, in the case of a 3D face we show how it can be represented using PDEs whereby a handful of key facial parameters can be identified for efficient storage and verification.

Trahel Vardanian, Will the Present-day Scientific Approaches Enable to Forecast Natural Disasters?

In the age of present-day scientific and technical achievements, man’s safety does not seem to be ensured. In particular, it refers to the process of forecasting and managing natural phenomena. Today, man is unable to resist to some natural disasters (earthquakes, floods and so on), of which he can become a victim any time. Science has developed thousands of mathematical models of forecasting natural disasters, which, however, cannot entirely explain and predict the cause-and-effect relations of the appearance of these phenomena. The reason is that natural phenomena are affected by numerous factors and cannot be managed by science; they have a complex mechanism, which is like a higher live organism. Thus, mathematics cannot forecast these phenomena with its “dead” models. Yet, mathematics has “managed” to make phenomena forecasting rigid and by this, to approach to some solution of this issue. It is necessary to form a synthesized science (Geography is an example of such science), which would comprise all cause-and-effect relations contributing to forecasting of phenomena, and, what is most important, would “enliven” the rigid mathematical models used in studying these phenomena.

Vladimir M. Veliov, Viable Control of the Air Quality in Case of Accidental Pollution

A control model of the air pollution in a bounded area with internal and external emission sources will be presented. The main scenario assumes that the safety bounds would be violated as a result of an abnormal pollution. The aim of control is to prevent violation by temporary restrictions on the emissions in the area. This should be done (if possible at all) either at a minimal cost, or an optimal trade-off between the cost of emission reduction and the damage caused by the pollution should be determined. Mathematically, the model involves a transport PDE with varying wind, controllable emission and non-linear deposition, and objective functions representing the cost of control and the cost of damage caused by the pollution. The theoretical background and a solution approach to the arising control problems will be presented.

Rene Willems, On the Role of Scenario's for Defence Planning

This paper discusses the role of defence forces in today's world. Subject to much deeper uncertainty as to where the security environment stands today compared to what is was engaged with in the 2nd half of the last century, the role, hence the capabilities forces require have to be adaptive and flexible.
Planning what kind of capabilities nations desire/wish to have to support their defense ambitions and the decisions what systems and doctrine to be fielded, require a much more flexible approach then ever before.
A systematic approach to guide decision makers and a discussion on how the development of scenario's and scenario-analyses may support this process will be presented as a strong mechanism as of how to cope with today's challenges.

Vladimir A. Zaslavsky, Integration Risk Optimization Models and Algorithms

Risk management and safety providing are system problems that concern different countries and unite industrial regions, depend on technical conditions of enterprises and influence on economy and ecology. Harmful attitude connecting with human activity to nature and its resources has a great negative influence on ecology, land and water resources and requires more and more financial expenses for risk reduction, reconstruction and prevention of technical and ecological cataclysms. Exclusive importance of risk management problems connected with the concept of sustainable development and it’s component - provision of life safety and environment protection.
On each management level it’s necessary to evaluate scales of the damages and losses, to have real and adequate cards of risk regions and classification of dangerous objects. System approach to risk investigation and hazards ranking (taking into account uncertainties) is very important along with understanding the fact that they can be interconnected, affect one another thus intensifying the negative effect.

Nikolay Zhivkov, Two Models for Decision-Making Support in Computer Assisted Exercise

This article present two models for decision-making support designed for the participants in the computer assisted exercise EU TACOM 2006 held in Sofia, Bulgaria, July 23-24. The first model is a real time simulation for prognoses and management of the relief supplies processes during crises and the second model estimates the area of the radiological contamination caused by a "dirty’’ bomb explosion and measures the health impact.
In a critical situation the natural equilibrium of the cycle demand-supply of a stable economic system is violated for many material products, resources or services. After an extremely short period of time there is necessity to plan the system behavior due to the increased demand of a certain resource, product, or service. The variety might be overwhelming; this could be life-saving medicaments, food products, water, protective equipment, clothing, instruments, sheltering, fuel, transportation services etc. For those whose responsibilities imply the neutralization of the crisis and its consequences, it is important to quickly evaluate the increased demand of any resource, product, or service, and to suggest ways to meet it. The simulation model gives a prognostic estimate for the increased demand based on a prognostic function of the crisis impact. Moreover, it describes the quantitative dynamics of the demand-supply cycle and thus helps the player to form a satisfactory strategy.
According to the scenario, in the second model a "dirty’’ bomb explosion occurred on a parking area in a highly populated region in a big city. The explosion dispersed small radioactive pearls containing Cs 137. Two ways of dispersion of the radioactive material after calculating the ballistic trajectories of the small pearls are compared.
Both models are implemented in the program environment of PowerSim Studio 2005.

Zahari Zlatev, Environmental Modelling, Security Measures and Decision Making

Comprehensive mathematical models can successfully be used in order to find out whether some critical levels of the environmental pollution (for example, critical levels established in the European Union) are exceeded or not. Exceeded critical levels of the environmental pollution may cause different damages on eco-systems, vegetables, animals and, what is perhaps most important, on human health. Therefore, different measures have to be taken if the critical levels of the environmental pollution are either already exceeded or will be exceeded in the near future. This is a difficult task, because the measures that have to be done are normally very expensive. The decision about what kind of measures are to be taken should be made after many runs of the available mathematical models with different scenarios (see Zlatev and Dimov [1]). The questions of the reliability of the model results and the choice of a sufficiently large set of scenarios will be discussed in this talk. The conclusions will be illustrated by some results obtained in several comprehensive environmental studies.
[1] Z. Zlatev and I. Dimov: "Computational and Numerical Challenges in Environmental Modelling", Studies in Computational Mathematics, Vol. 13, Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, 2006.